Forecasts and analysis from FXTM

Investors and traders across different asset classes are eager to know what the Fed is currently thinking, as U.S. equities sit at record highs, the U.S. dollar is close to November 2016 lows, and treasury yields are in a downtrend move.The question today is not whether the Fed will hike rates or n....

The potential threat of complications and confrontations during Brexit negotiations could rekindle hard Brexit fears and expose Sterling to downside risks this quarter. Some difficulties have already materialized in the early stages of Brexit talks with European Commission President, Jean-Claude Ju....

After returning from a long weekend, equity investors seem undecided on whether to be bullish or bearish. Stocks across Asian markets were mixed on Tuesday despite the CBOE Volatility Index hitting its lowest levels in a decade. However the low volatility was reflected in currency markets with the ....

WTI Crude edged below $49 a barrel during Monday’s trading session as rising crude outputs and drilling in the United States nullified OPEC’s efforts to stabilizing the saturated oil markets. Although some investors remain cautiously optimistic over OPEC extending the supply cut deal this year, the....

Sterling found itself slightly pressured during Monday’s trading session after reports of the European Union adopting a hard line stance on Brexit rekindled Brexit-related jitters. The downside was fuelled by Prime Minister Theresa May renewing her threats to walking away from the European Union wi....

The Greenback was vulnerable to heavy losses on Friday, with prices tumbling towards 98.80 as the mixture of soft economic data from the US this week, and rising uncertainty over Trump’s proposed tax reforms weighed on sentiment.Much attention may be directed towards the pending Q1 2017 US GDP repo....

The market-shaking, risk-on rally displayed early signs of exhaustion during early trading on Friday, with global stocks on the retreat as geopolitical concerns kept investors anxious. Asian equities were vulnerable to losses amid the cautious trading sentiment, with negative momentum already limit....

The EURUSD remained static during Thursday’s trading session, as investors remained on the fence ahead of the forthcoming European Central Bank meeting. With markets widely expecting the ECB to leave monetary policy unchanged in April, much attention may be directed towards Draghi’s tone. Although ....

Trump's big tax reforms and tax reductions on Wednesday proved to be not so big, at least from Wall Street’s perspective. U.S. equities shrugged off earlier gains after flirting with all-time highs, the dollar pared back some gains, and Treasury yields declined slightly from a two-week high.The mar....

The Euro was under pressure during Wednesday’s trading session with prices eventually dipping below 1.0900 as of writing. Although bulls remain somewhat in control on the daily charts, there is still a potential risk of the EURUSD tumbling lower if uncertainty heightens ahead of the second round of....

The Brexit-related jitters may return with a vengeance in the coming weeks if complications arise from the European Union government toughening their negotiation positions. Official Brexit talks have yet to commence, but the EU has already dished out fresh demands, focusing on residency rights and ....

USD traders were upbeat today as the US economic data was much stronger than expected despite a minor blip. New home sales m/m stole the show lifting to 621K (583K exp), show casing a strong resurgence in the housing market as confidence has been taking off. However, CB consumer confidence dipped t....

The Macron-inspired risk-on rally has bolstered investor risk sentiment, with the hunt for risk elevating world stocks to record highs during Tuesday’s trading session. Asian equities marched to a near two-year high on Tuesday amid the risk-on trading mood and the bullish momentum supporting Europe....

The positive momentum driven by the outcome of the first round of voting in the French presidential elections extended into its second day. It now appears that investors are confident that Macron will be France’s next president and will win the battle on 7 May easily. Investors who lost confidence ....

Financial markets received a solid boost during early trading on Monday, after Centrist Emmanuel Macron secured a position in the second round of the French presidential elections. With Macron’s market-friendly first round victory dissolving some risks associated around a potential anti-establishme....

First round of French presidential electionsAfter the U.S. selected Trump and the U.K. chose Brexit, now it’s time for France to pick the next President. Today the French voters are heading to the polls for the first round of the presidential election, and unlike any of the previous elections, it’s....

Sterling attracted a school of sellers during early trading on Friday, following the disappointing 1.8% decline in UK retail sales in March that rekindled fears of Brexit impacting the U.K economy. U.K retail sales posted their largest quarterly fall in seven years for the first quarter of 2017, as....

The Euro was elevated to levels not seen since March 2017 at 1.0777 during Thursday’s trading session, as participants discarded short positions ahead of the first round of the French Presidential elections this weekend. Although the Euro has continued to display resilience against pre-election jit....

WTI Crude was exposed to sharp losses on Wednesday, with prices tumbling towards $50 after an unexpected weekly climb in U.S gasoline supplies compounded with existing oversupply fears. Although some losses were clawed back during early trading on Thursday as investors attempted to look beyond the ....

Sterling was catapulted to a fresh six-month high above 1.2900 during trading on Tuesday, as speculation heightened over the surprise snap general elections that are being used as a a measure to reduce the risk of failure in the intricate Brexit negotiations. The likely possibility of Prime Ministe....

Asian equity markets fell across the board on Wednesday, following a negative lead from the U.S. on earnings disappointment and lower commodity prices despite a weaker U.S. dollar.The geopolitical tensions concerning North Korea, the French elections, and growing skepticism around the U.S. administ....

Sterling was back in fashion on Tuesday, with the GBPUSD lurching towards 1.2675 following Theresa May’s unexpected announcement that there will be a snap general election on 8 June. This bombshell development has offered Sterling a solid boost, with markets now evaluating what impact this may have....

The U.S. dollar continued to recover from a five-month low against the Yen early Tuesday, after testing 108.11 yesterday. Comments from U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin, stating that a strong dollar is good in the long run, offset previous remarks from President Trump, who last week sa....

USD bulls have managed to claw back some ground in the market today as the dollar was buoyed by positive market sentiment for the US economy and some risk appetite after the Easter season. For large market movers this was apparent for the USDJPY as it looked to claw back some of the ground after la....

Reaction to China GDP dataOptimism over the underlying momentum of the China economy in 2017 has continued to improve, following official figures showing that GDP output grew by 6.9% over the first quarter of 2017. This represents stronger growth than what was expected and does point towards the Ch....

The recent escalation of geopolitical risks dominating the financial market headlines has been briefly removed from investors’ radars after US President Donald Trump once again took the markets by surprise. This time, President Trump made U-turns on several of his previous public views, making inve....

The Greenback and U.S. Treasury yields continued to fall early Thursday, after Trump’s comments to the Wall Street Journal that the dollar is getting too strong. According to the U.S. President, he’s the one to blame for this,because people have confidence in him. Maybe not everyone agrees, with hi....

The US dollar has come under some strong selling pressure today after recent comments from President Trump were very much in the bears favour. While previously campaigning on a platform of change in the last few hours he has a done a number of U-turns on economic policy, including: being open to ex....

Ongoing geopolitical tensions across the globe and heightened political risk in Europe have limited appetite for riskier assets this week, with global stocks now on the back foot. Asian share concluded in the red on Wednesday, as the uncertainty from world events left investors on edge. Although Eu....

It seems almost surreal that another war might be on the horizon for the United states, but that could be very much be the case in the near future. Markets are responding as a result and risk hedging has been the main theme thus far and this can be seen on a variety of markets. Despite all of this ....