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Fundamental analysis of WTI/

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Oil is hindered by a pandemic
Long-term review The fate of the black gold market does not depend on Saudi Arabia, which, under the influence of rising global demand, raises its oil prices; and not from Russia, whose Urals grade is trading at a premium of $ 2.4 per barrel to Brent, although in April it was a discount of $ 4.5; ....
10
COVID-19, hanging over the markets, hinders the speed of their recovery (growth of AUD/USD and NZD/USD pairs is expected)
Relevance up to 07:00 2020-07-08 UTC+2 The very good data on US employment published on Thursday not only had a noticeable local impact on the US dollar, which fell to major currencies over the week, but also inspired stock markets, allowing major US, European and Asian stock indices to finish the....
4
USD / CAD. Loonie plunges amid weak economic data
Relevance up to 15:00 2020-07-04 UTC+2 At first glance, the reaction of loonie to the published data seems illogical. After all, the April figures reflected a record decline in the Canadian economy in the entire history of observations. Canada's GDP fell in April by 11.6%, while in March a decreas....
16
2020 is the worst year in oil history
2020 is the worst year in oil history
Coronavirus and massive oil oversupply was a once-in-a-generation coincidence. Is the worst over? What’s happening? This year has been really tough for most industries. However, the oil sector was the most affected. The coronavirus forced countries to shut all factories and people stay at home. That...
5
Oil
Long-term review The strengthening of the US dollar, the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in the US, and rumors about the resumption of Libyan oil exports in previous volumes do not allow the "bulls" for Brent and WTI to continue the rally. Although the North Sea variety has strength....
4
Oil producers to resume production by the end of this month
Relevance up to 09:00 2020-06-26 UTC+2 More than a third of shale producers surveyed by the Dallas Fed said that they will resume oil production by the end of this month. This will hopefully put an end to the decline in production which started when oil prices collapsed earlier this year.The surve....
4
Coronavirus - second wave and fall of USD world domination
Long-term review The United States has covered a second wave of coronavirus infection, which is associated with mass protests and acts of civil disobedience provoked by the assassination of George Floyd, as well as the early discovery of certain sectors of the American economy. Having reached a d....
6
Oil rally meets traders' expectations
Long-term review The global fuel demand is now on track to recover while oil production has been reduced. That is what I hoped for when I recommended buying Brent at $28 in late March and at $36.65 in early June. The forecasts turn out to be true as black gold rises to 3-month highs. These are th....
7
Oil prospects for June and July 2020
Oil prospects for June and July 2020
Long-term review Oil is the most important asset for us, and today I would like to consider its prospects for June and July 2020, especially since last week new data were released from the US Energy Information Agency (US EIA), which allows us to look at the oil market not only from a technical b....
4
Oil
Oil
Long-term review If US stock indices are considered an indicator of global risk appetite, then the oil is a kind of indicator of the health of the world economy. In this regard, we should not be surprised at the rapid growth of these assets at a time when the world is on the verge of victory over ....
4
USD/RUB and OIL: trader's treasure
USD/RUB and OIL: trader's treasure
Oil’s contribution The current president assumed power in Russia in 2000 and stayed in power de facto during these 20 years. Leaving aside political questions, let’s focus on the economy and try to find a correlation between the price of oil and the price of the USD against the RUB. Until 2015, whil...
8
Oil took a step back
Oil took a step back
Relevance up to 13:00 2020-06-10 UTC+2 Buy on rumors, then sell on facts. Brent and WTI actively grew on expectations of extending the April OPEC+ agreement to reduce production by 9.7 million b/d from the end of June to a later period. In the end, everything happened. However, the terms of the ne....
9
USD/CAD. Loonie takes the cream: the Canadian dollar has powerful allies
USD/CAD. Loonie takes the cream: the Canadian dollar has powerful allies
Relevance up to 17:00 UTC+2 The Canadian dollar continues to "skim the cream" from the current situation in the foreign exchange and commodity markets. Uncertain dollar positions helped USD/CAD bears reach three-month lows: the loonie returned to pre-crisis range, which was limited to 1.30 and 1.....
23
Russian rouble to benefit from decrease in demand for foreign currencies
Russian rouble to benefit from decrease in demand for foreign currencies
Long-term review The Russian ruble is sweeping away all obstacles thanks to the continuous growth of US stock indices, oil, and the euro. Inspired by the EU's large-scale fiscal stimulus and hopes for the QE expansion, the euro has been strengthening against the US dollar for 11 trading days. The ....
12
Cheap money and rising oil prices determine the markets' dynamics; Overview of NZD and AUD
Cheap money and rising oil prices determine the markets' dynamics; Overview of NZD and AUD
Relevance up to 07:00 2020-06-05 UTC+2 Markets are still not paying attention to the growth of civil unrest in the United States, nor to the deterioration of US-China relations. The first stage trade agreement signed on January 15 is on the verge of collapse, but the markets have already noticed t....
11
Oil needs a compromise
Oil needs a compromise
Long-term review May has become a real holiday for oil. The Texas grade added about 88% to its value, which was the best result in the history of WTI futures contracts since 1983. Things were no worse for Brent, whose quotes doubled in 6 weeks and reached the highest level since the beginning of M....
14
Oil and USD/CAD
Oil and USD/CAD
Long-term review The meeting of the Bank of Canada, the release of data on the labor market of the Maple Leaf Country, and expectations of the June OPEC+ summit attract investors' close attention to the Canadian dollar. In May, the "loonie" strengthened against its American namesake by 2.6%, ignor....
20
Oil rally takes breath
Oil rally takes breath
Oil prices have been climbing up for a long time. What have stopped them? Supply-demand question First of all, prices fell on Wednesday after the API reported a surprisingly large crude build. It was reported an 8.7-million-barrel build, while analysts expected a 1.9-million-barrel draw. On Thursday...
10
Oil is gaining momentum
Oil is gaining momentum
How will the world change after the pandemic? People will work more remotely and travel less. If so, global demand for oil up to COVID-19 at just over 100 million b/d may become extreme, suggesting limited potential for a Brent and WTI rally. However, this opinion is not shared by all. The IEA belie...
11
#CL oil is too important to cost less than $20
#CL oil is too important to cost less than $20
Long-term review Dear colleagues. The fall of oil quotes into the negative zone caused a serious commotion not only on world exchanges and the information space, but also in the minds of investors. What until recently was unbelievable has become a reality. However, negative prices cannot be the n....
12
Oil bounce back
Oil bounce back
Long-term review To be successful in trading, you need to not only correctly predict the direction of price movement, but also do it in time. Now only the lazy are not sure about the growth of Brent and WTI: Donald Trump in his Twitter orders oil to go back to the levels at which black gold was q....
9
EUR/USD: debates in US Congress, Powell's dovish rhetoric, and increased risk appetite
EUR/USD: debates in US Congress, Powell's dovish rhetoric, and increased risk appetite
Relevance up to 17:00 2020-05-19 UTC+2 Over the past two weeks, the euro/dollar pair has been fluctuating within a wide flat channel with the borders at 1.0750 and 1.0890. On the one hand, the pair shows certain volatility (although, much less than in April and especially in March), but at the sa....
10
EUR/USD: The US is ready to impose sanctions against China. The US oil industry may receive assistance from the government. The further growth of the euro raises many questions.
EUR/USD: The US is ready to impose sanctions against China. The US oil industry may receive assistance from the government. The further growth of the euro raises many questions.
Relevance up to 09:00 2020-05-14 UTC+2 The US is ready to impose sanctions on China regarding the spread of the coronavirus. US Senator Lindsey Graham revealed yesterday that he submitted proposals for a bill that would authorize the US president to impose far-reaching sanctions on China if it f....
10
Oil hopes for the best, but prepares for the worst
Oil hopes for the best, but prepares for the worst
Long-term review While investors are weighing what is behind the unexpected decision by Saudi Arabia and its allies to cut oil production beyond the OPEC+ set volume, Brent and WTI are frozen in consolidation. At first glance, Riyadh's decline in production from 8.5 million b/d in May to 7.5 milli....
23
SAUDI ARAMCO: temporary balance
SAUDI ARAMCO: temporary balance
Balanced decline Since its IPO in December 2019, Saudi Aramco’s stock price has been consistently declining. Before the New Year, it traded at $35. But in the second week of March, it was down to $27. After plunging to those levels, it gradually got back to the previously marked descending trajector...
11
Oil: first signs of a long recovery
Oil: first signs of a long recovery
Oil is trading higher for the second week. For how long? The crude oil price is moving up due to many reasons. First of all, the market is hungry for risk because of optimistic US-China trade talks and reopening of economies all over the world. Also, the ease of lockdowns leads to more consumption a...
46
Oil is going up
Oil is going up
Long-term review After the disaster in April, the oil market begins to revive in May. Low prices contribute to a reduction in production, while the gradual opening of the economies of the US, Italy, Spain, and other countries creates a fair wind for the recovery of global demand. The gradual decre....
18
US crude oil to collapse again.
US crude oil to collapse again.
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC+2 Tuesday brought US crude oil another day of volatile trading. Concerns about insufficient storage capacity persist, and masses reckon that US oil quotes would fall below zero again.Extreme price fluctuations from $10 to $14 per barrel during recent sessions have shocked....
9
Oil will check storage facilities
Oil will check storage facilities
Long-term review When speculation is added to the huge surplus in the black gold market, shocks become inevitable. The Texas grade fell immediately by 20% in trading on April 27 after S&P GSCI, one of the largest specialized exchange-traded funds in the world working with oil, announced its in....
23
How long will oil be down?
How long will oil be down?
Oil is the subject of heated debates these days as nobody really knows what to do with the “humiliated” asset. Market traders are scared in the oil markets. Background The oil demand declined by 30% because of the coronavirus lockdown. Saudi Arabia and Russia couldn’t agree about the production cut ...
9
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