Fundamental analysis of USD/TRY

What happened? The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) raised its cash rate, surprising investors. It was a necessary action for Turkey to meet the bank's target of lowering inflation to 9.4% by year-end to approach the longer-term target of 5% in 2023.  "It is crucial that the lira offers...

What happened? The Turkish lira surged after Tukey reported inflation climbed to 15% in January. It bolstered analysts’ expectations that monetary policy will be kept tight for a longer period. Moreover, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its forecast that Turkey's economy will grow by ...

Technicals USD/TRY reached 7.94 a week ago. Since then, it has been but moving down. Lately, it has been floating above 7.76 between the 100-MA and 200-MA. The last spike back to the recent highs may not be the last you see - the TRY has a lot of problems. On a larger timeframe, 8.00 is not yet reac...

Why you are reading this Because you can trade Turkish lira, and there are things happening right now that may affect the course of TRY very much. What’s happening Azerbaijan and Armenia are at war – again. Who started it – doesn’t matter anymore. What matters is who wants what and what position eve...

USD/TRY continues moving upwards after breaking the all-time high of 7.50. Does it have more room to keep rallying? Let’s find out. What happened? The credit rating agency Moody downgraded Turkey’s debt rating to junk. Besides, Moody gave a considerably negative prognosis on the Turkish lira itself ...

Intro Currencies of developing countries such as the RUB, TRY, and MXN are by definition unstable. That’s why they fluctuate more than main ones, offering wider profit opportunities. At the same time, they are normally weaker than the USD. In the long run, therefore, you are likely to see USD/RUB, U...

TRY bounced back to 6.9 as the government appealed for funding. Where is it headed now? The Turkish government took defensive measures to avoid the currency crisis. The Turkish central bank asked foreign allies for funding. They have already held talks with the USA, Japan, the United Kingdom, Qatar,...

Syria Normally, we observe fundamentals or recent news and then come to the consequences for the respective currencies. This time, let’s make it the other way around and march from the “crime” back to the motive. So we are speaking about the Turkish lira now and how it mirrors the war in Syria, in w...

Currency pair of the day: USD/TRY Performance in 2020: +1.6% Last day range: 6.0177 – 6.0521 52-week range: 5.2863 – 6.2860 TRY: 10 years of losing against the USD The Turkish lira is depreciating against the US dollar. In fact, that has been the case for more than 10 years, with the exception of t...

The upcoming year opens a new decade. The events of Blade Runner would have already taken place. Do you feel that the future is here? In this article, we look at the economic side of things. Will the trends we observed in 2019 continue in 2020? What will happen with the global economy? And, finally,...

While major currencies draw a lot of attention these days, it may be worth keeping a broad view of the market. If we start looking for profit opportunities elsewhere, the Turkish lira will come up soon. What’s happening with the TRY and is it fit for trading? During September and the beginning of Oc...

The upcoming days are going to contain lots of important economic events. Let’s go through them together in order to prepare for profitable trading. RBNZ Official Cash Rate & Rate Statement When: Wednesday, June 26 Instruments to trade: NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, AUD/NZD According to the consensus forec...

On Friday, USD/TRY rose to its last October’s highs above the 5.82 level. Such a dramatic drop of the Turkish lira raised concerns about the instability of the Turkish economy once again. With many political and economic uncertainties in the country, we may just wonder whether the local elections on...

22.03.2019The major currency pair is looking for a way to get stabilized, while the greenback followers are trying to recover after the Fed meeting tensions. The EURUSD is currently trading at around 1.1382.Quite a few PMI and business reports are being released today in the afternoon, covering the ...

The beginning of the month was quite eventful for the Turkish lira. However, this week it started to lose its volatility. What is happening? The Turkish lira started to gain its momentum during the first week of November. It was supported by the higher-than-expected level of manufacturing PMI at 44...

The consumer inflation in Turkey increased to 24.5% in September - the highest level since August 2003. Producer prices increased by 46.2% as well. The reason for it lies in existing currency crisis and the US sanctions against two Turkish diplomats. However, it seems like the Turkish lira has react...

On Monday, the 13th of August, Turks woke up with a course of lira at the level of 7 per dollar, it became clear that the current policy in combating the crisis did not pass the exam. The joint actions undertaken by the government and the Turkish central bank at that time allowed the campaign to sto...

The dollar has accepted the punch from Trump and the corrective developments dictate the conditions on the main currency pairs. The Asian stock market is "enjoying" the disruption of USD domination; similarly, in the commodity market, the valuation in the American currency is adjusted.The American p...

Moscow is still interested in trading with Ankara using the Russian ruble and Turkish lira. Both currencies fell compared to the US dollar, and TRY sets new records every day."The issue of using national currencies in interstate commerce is a topic which the Russian side has been dealing with for a ...

Speeches of the Turkish president are in the last days at high risk for the TRY course. It was no different today. Speaking today in the early afternoon in Ankara, the leader was broadly referring to economic issues. The tone in which Erdogan speaks is still warlike: "We can do two things, one in th...

In the statement released this morning, the Turkish monetary authorities have announced the announcement of several activities that have one goal - to calm the situation around the domestic banking system and restore confidence in the lira. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey announced, among...

Moscow is still interested in trading with Ankara using the Russian ruble and Turkish lira. Both currencies fell compared to the US dollar, and TRY sets new records every day."The issue of using national currencies in interstate commerce is a topic which the Russian side has been dealing with for a ...

Speeches of the Turkish president are in the last days at high risk for the TRY course. It was no different today. Speaking today in the early afternoon in Ankara, the leader was broadly referring to economic issues. The tone in which Erdogan speaks is still warlike: "We can do two things, one in th...

In the statement released this morning, the Turkish monetary authorities have announced the announcement of several activities that have one goal - to calm the situation around the domestic banking system and restore confidence in the lira. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey announced, among...

USD/TRY opened the week with the gap up and rose to a new record high abive 7.00. The lira made another leap down as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday that he was against interest rate increases and that Turkey is in an “economic war.” He also claimed that an agreement with the I...

The Central Bank of Turkey contrary to popular belief of market participants did not raise interest rates by 100 bp. The increase was fully discounted, so its lack was a huge shock. The justification was the slowdown in economic growth, the already high-interest rate (17.75%) and the conviction that...

The fall of the Turkish lira has been continuing for a long time. For the first time, the Turkish currency significantly plunged in July 2016 after the coup attempt. Foreign investment flows strongly declined and the rate of the lira fell against all major currencies as the government started repres...

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey decided on a long-awaited reform of interest rates, adapting to global standards. From 1 June 2018, the existing interest rates will be replaced by a standard known from major central banks. The reference rate - in case of Turkey, the interest rate on weekl...

On Wednesday, the Turkish central bank raised its rate known as the Late Liquidity Window (LLW) by 3 pp. Previously, it was 13.5%, from today it is 16.5%. Other rates remained unchanged. The decision was taken during an extraordinary meeting convened in connection with the worrying developments in T...

The global investors are increasingly worried about the state of the 17th economy in the world. On Wednesday morning the Turks had to pay nearly 4.50 lira for one dollar, which is more than 1% more than the day before. At the beginning of the year, the American currency was less than 3.80 lira. This...