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Weekly Market Outlook: US Employment news in focus
As we head into the Easter weekend, all eyes turn to the US Non-Farm Payroll numbers on Friday afternoon. Traders have been driving the US dollar higher in recent weeks as speculation mounts the Fed will be forced to increase interest rates sooner rather than later.  The rising US dollar has affecte...
33
Will WTI Crude Oil drop 30% from long-term resistance?
Since the lows of the pandemic in March 2020, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil - an international benchmark - has risen more than 500%.  However, the price of WTI crude oil is now trading at historical resistance where buyers have struggled to break through before. This opens the...
13
Will Facebook drop 17% from resistance or breakthrough?
This week, risk assets in currencies and commodities have tumbled lower with the New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar and WTI crude oil leading the way lower. So far, equity markets haven’t followed through but investors are very cautious at these multi-year highs.  The tech sector could be in part...
12
Could fears of a new wave turn commodity markets around?
As we discussed last February, the technical outlook for both gold and oil completely reversed during 2020 and early 2021 leaving a positive outlook for crude oil due to the vaccination process and improved future prospects. During the last few days, there has been a growing fear regarding increasin...
20
U.S. dollar consolidated
The value of the U.S. dollar fluctuated quite significantly last week, especially during the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, but the reserve currency did not show any sustainable trend and the index remained in a consolidation range.  USD U.S. data were positive, although not everything was in-line wi...
14
Weekly Market Outlook: The Fed & European PMI data in focus
After last week’s FOMC press conference the US dollar surged higher trying to break out of its recent range. While it has failed to do so, traders will be looking for more clues this week from the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in speeches over Monday and Tuesday.  Furthermore, the euro will be in...
7
Nasdaq 100 crashes on soaring yields - back to 50 WMA?
The Nasdaq 100 have led stock markets lower at the end of the week as investors continue to fret about rising bond yields. The index which comprises the largest technology companies listed on the NASDAQ Exchange has seen a huge investor sell-off in recent weeks.  The index fell more than 3% yesterda...
8
DJI 30 at record highs! Pull back to the 20 DMA?
Global stock market indices have continued to rally higher but the unevenness in momentum across different regions and sectors still remains. For example, the Nasdaq 100 currently trades below its record all-time high price level while the Dow Jones 30 (DJI 30) index trades well above its record hig...
5
With the exception of the Nasdaq, US indices recover previous levels following recent declines
Following investor fears of inflation in the US, which were reflected in the declines of the main US indices, it appears that calmness is gradually returning to Wall Street. With the exception of the Nasdaq, which was hit hardest, the main indices have recovered and are continuing their upward trend...
7
A correction from 3-month highs in the USD
Last week the global reserve currency retreated from 3-month highs and the U.S. dollar index recorded a fall of -0.3%. Positive sentiment in the financial markets has encouraged investors to increase risk demand and choose riskier currencies. USD U.S. data was positive. Inflation has risen to 1.7% p...
11
Weekly Market Outlook: FOMC and BOE in focus this week
Central bank news announcements take centre stage this week with the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes release and economic projections due on Wednesday 17 March, followed by a press conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.  Traders will be focused on the Fed’s response to surging bond yi...
25
Will Nike run to its all-time high on earnings?
Shares in Nike have rallied nearly 150% higher since the March lows of the coronavirus pandemic last year. However, so far this year, the sports retailers share price has traded in a range between ~$148.00 and ~$128.00.  With a third-quarter earnings report due on 18 March, traders will be watching ...
9
Is oil readying for a 20% technical drop?
The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has surged higher more than 500% since the lows of the pandemic in March 2020. Demand for crude oil has rapidly increased as countries roll out the coronavirus vaccine and get their economies moving once again.  Oil prices received a further boost...
19
Rising US bond yields and good unemployment data support the US dollar
In February we noted that the dollar index had lost ground against the major currencies, after enjoying a positive month in January, which had been preceded by a year of weakness for the US dollar in 2020. During the last few sessions, the dollar index has shown strength at its important support lev...
17
Weekly Market Outlook: All eyes on the ECB this week
Volatility surged higher in global markets last week as investors focus on rising bond yields from an improving US economy. With a strong employment report last week, the US dollar will be widely watched this week even though Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has tried to calm markets down over...
7
The U.S. dollar rose to a 3-month high
Last week was positive for the U.S. dollar, its index rose sharply and reached its highest level since the end of November 2020. It was announced over the weekend that the U.S. Senate approved a 1.9 trillion USD economic stimulus program. The plan now needs to be approved by the House of Representat...
18
Is Netflix readying for a 15% drop?
Shares in Netflix are up more than 100% from the coronavirus pandemic low in March 2020 to the current high of 2021. However, the stock that outperformed during lockdowns is now feeling the pain as investors look to life after a successful coronavirus vaccine rollout.  Over the past several weeks we...
4
Will NIO Inc drop 20% to a major technical support zone?
NIO Inc shares have been against the ropes this month after posting a disappointing fourth-quarter earnings report. The Chinese electric car manufacturer reported revenues of $1 billion which missed analyst estimates.  It’s only been one year since the company was saved from bankruptcy by a governme...
10
The arrival of Spring and the vaccination process encourages the tourism sector
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the worst-hit sector has undoubtedly been the tourism sector, dragging the main airlines to trade at seriously lows, causing problems in the viability of many of these companies. The pandemic and the measures taken to stop its expansion at a global level, caused ...
3
U.S. dollar remained in consolidation mode
Last week the U.S. dollar remained in the last 2-month trading channel, starting the week with a correction, but later recovered all weekly losses on Friday. With financial markets worried about rising bond yields, investors are withdrawing from stock markets, prompting a return of capital to the U....
16
Markets watching the RBA, OPEC, and US NFPs
The first week of a new month starts off with some major economic news announcements that are likely to affect most markets. This includes US Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) figures on Monday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announcement on Tuesday, OPEC meetings on Thursday and US...
7
Is Amazon stock approaching a buy or break zone?
The global stock market rout continued in yesterday’s trading, led by a 3.5% fall in the Nasdaq 100 stock market index - the biggest drop since October.  An outsized surge in bond yields spooked stock market investors who are now rushing to exit risk assets. Especially the stocks that have soared in...
5
Nasdaq 100 bounces off 50ema - new record high coming?
US stock market indices put in a huge reversal in yesterday’s trading after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signalled that the bank would continue to buy bonds even as the economic outlook has started to improve.  Currently, the Fed is buying $120 billion worth of assets per mon...
5
The outlook for Gold and Brent is very different from a year ago
We enter the last week of February with a very different technical outlook for gold and oil prices than this time last year, at the beginning of the pandemic. In February 2020, the future outlook for both gold and oil was completely bullish and bearish respectively. However, during the last part of ...
11
U.S. Dollar Did Not Show Signs of Direction
The U.S. dollar started quite positively last week, but sentiment didn’t last long and the world’s reserve currency has depreciated since Thursday. The value of the U.S. dollar index remains mostly unchanged since the beginning of 2021.  USD U.S. economic data has been fairly positive. In January, r...
27
Weekly Market Outlook: RBNZ, Commodities and earnings in focus
In the last full trading week of February, all eyes turn to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and press conference on Wednesday, with UK employment and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday.  The currency markets are likely to dominate flows this week, ...
7
Will Walmart shares fall to $132 support after earnings miss?
Walmart shares were down more than 6% on Thursday after the world’s biggest retailer posted a fourth-quarter earnings miss. While the retailer’s e-commerce sales in the US grew by 69%, investors were given the warning sign when the company said it expects sales to moderate this year.  The long-term ...
4
Will the technical breakout on Berkshire Hathaway continue higher?
After an incredible +400% run higher in Berkshire Hathaway’s stock price from the lows of 2009 to the highs of 2018, the share price has spent much of the past few years stuck in a range. In fact, from 2018 to early this year its share price has traded in a consolidation pattern between $232 and $15...
5
After a recovery in January, the dollar index has lost ground in February
In January, the dollar index experienced a sharp rebound in its price after hitting its critical support level. This followed the weakness of the US dollar against its major rivals in 2020 which led to it trading below the 90.00 level at the beginning of this year. This January rally was mainly due ...
8
Weekly Market Outlook: FOMC, PMI figures and earnings have the market’s attention
This week all eyes turn to the commodity markets as investment banks from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs state that commodities may have begun a new supercycle. Oil prices are likely to be the key focus as prices have surged nearly 80% from November lows.  Key economic data points will also be widely w...
15
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