Forecasts and analysis from Admiral Markets

As we head into the Easter weekend, all eyes turn to the US Non-Farm Payroll numbers on Friday afternoon. Traders have been driving the US dollar higher in recent weeks as speculation mounts the Fed will be forced to increase interest rates sooner rather than later.  The rising US dollar has affecte...

Since the lows of the pandemic in March 2020, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil - an international benchmark - has risen more than 500%.  However, the price of WTI crude oil is now trading at historical resistance where buyers have struggled to break through before. This opens the...

This week, risk assets in currencies and commodities have tumbled lower with the New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar and WTI crude oil leading the way lower. So far, equity markets haven’t followed through but investors are very cautious at these multi-year highs.  The tech sector could be in part...

As we discussed last February, the technical outlook for both gold and oil completely reversed during 2020 and early 2021 leaving a positive outlook for crude oil due to the vaccination process and improved future prospects. During the last few days, there has been a growing fear regarding increasin...

The value of the U.S. dollar fluctuated quite significantly last week, especially during the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, but the reserve currency did not show any sustainable trend and the index remained in a consolidation range.  USD U.S. data were positive, although not everything was in-line wi...

After last week’s FOMC press conference the US dollar surged higher trying to break out of its recent range. While it has failed to do so, traders will be looking for more clues this week from the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in speeches over Monday and Tuesday.  Furthermore, the euro will be in...

The Nasdaq 100 have led stock markets lower at the end of the week as investors continue to fret about rising bond yields. The index which comprises the largest technology companies listed on the NASDAQ Exchange has seen a huge investor sell-off in recent weeks.  The index fell more than 3% yesterda...

Global stock market indices have continued to rally higher but the unevenness in momentum across different regions and sectors still remains. For example, the Nasdaq 100 currently trades below its record all-time high price level while the Dow Jones 30 (DJI 30) index trades well above its record hig...

Following investor fears of inflation in the US, which were reflected in the declines of the main US indices, it appears that calmness is gradually returning to Wall Street. With the exception of the Nasdaq, which was hit hardest, the main indices have recovered and are continuing their upward trend...

Last week the global reserve currency retreated from 3-month highs and the U.S. dollar index recorded a fall of -0.3%. Positive sentiment in the financial markets has encouraged investors to increase risk demand and choose riskier currencies. USD U.S. data was positive. Inflation has risen to 1.7% p...

Central bank news announcements take centre stage this week with the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes release and economic projections due on Wednesday 17 March, followed by a press conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.  Traders will be focused on the Fed’s response to surging bond yi...

Shares in Nike have rallied nearly 150% higher since the March lows of the coronavirus pandemic last year. However, so far this year, the sports retailers share price has traded in a range between ~$148.00 and ~$128.00.  With a third-quarter earnings report due on 18 March, traders will be watching ...

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has surged higher more than 500% since the lows of the pandemic in March 2020. Demand for crude oil has rapidly increased as countries roll out the coronavirus vaccine and get their economies moving once again.  Oil prices received a further boost...

In February we noted that the dollar index had lost ground against the major currencies, after enjoying a positive month in January, which had been preceded by a year of weakness for the US dollar in 2020. During the last few sessions, the dollar index has shown strength at its important support lev...

Volatility surged higher in global markets last week as investors focus on rising bond yields from an improving US economy. With a strong employment report last week, the US dollar will be widely watched this week even though Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has tried to calm markets down over...

Last week was positive for the U.S. dollar, its index rose sharply and reached its highest level since the end of November 2020. It was announced over the weekend that the U.S. Senate approved a 1.9 trillion USD economic stimulus program. The plan now needs to be approved by the House of Representat...

Shares in Netflix are up more than 100% from the coronavirus pandemic low in March 2020 to the current high of 2021. However, the stock that outperformed during lockdowns is now feeling the pain as investors look to life after a successful coronavirus vaccine rollout.  Over the past several weeks we...

NIO Inc shares have been against the ropes this month after posting a disappointing fourth-quarter earnings report. The Chinese electric car manufacturer reported revenues of $1 billion which missed analyst estimates.  It’s only been one year since the company was saved from bankruptcy by a governme...

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the worst-hit sector has undoubtedly been the tourism sector, dragging the main airlines to trade at seriously lows, causing problems in the viability of many of these companies. The pandemic and the measures taken to stop its expansion at a global level, caused ...

Last week the U.S. dollar remained in the last 2-month trading channel, starting the week with a correction, but later recovered all weekly losses on Friday. With financial markets worried about rising bond yields, investors are withdrawing from stock markets, prompting a return of capital to the U....

The first week of a new month starts off with some major economic news announcements that are likely to affect most markets. This includes US Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) figures on Monday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announcement on Tuesday, OPEC meetings on Thursday and US...

The global stock market rout continued in yesterday’s trading, led by a 3.5% fall in the Nasdaq 100 stock market index - the biggest drop since October.  An outsized surge in bond yields spooked stock market investors who are now rushing to exit risk assets. Especially the stocks that have soared in...

US stock market indices put in a huge reversal in yesterday’s trading after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signalled that the bank would continue to buy bonds even as the economic outlook has started to improve.  Currently, the Fed is buying $120 billion worth of assets per mon...

We enter the last week of February with a very different technical outlook for gold and oil prices than this time last year, at the beginning of the pandemic. In February 2020, the future outlook for both gold and oil was completely bullish and bearish respectively. However, during the last part of ...

The U.S. dollar started quite positively last week, but sentiment didn’t last long and the world’s reserve currency has depreciated since Thursday. The value of the U.S. dollar index remains mostly unchanged since the beginning of 2021.  USD U.S. economic data has been fairly positive. In January, r...

In the last full trading week of February, all eyes turn to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and press conference on Wednesday, with UK employment and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday.  The currency markets are likely to dominate flows this week, ...

Walmart shares were down more than 6% on Thursday after the world’s biggest retailer posted a fourth-quarter earnings miss. While the retailer’s e-commerce sales in the US grew by 69%, investors were given the warning sign when the company said it expects sales to moderate this year.  The long-term ...

After an incredible +400% run higher in Berkshire Hathaway’s stock price from the lows of 2009 to the highs of 2018, the share price has spent much of the past few years stuck in a range. In fact, from 2018 to early this year its share price has traded in a consolidation pattern between $232 and $15...

In January, the dollar index experienced a sharp rebound in its price after hitting its critical support level. This followed the weakness of the US dollar against its major rivals in 2020 which led to it trading below the 90.00 level at the beginning of this year. This January rally was mainly due ...

This week all eyes turn to the commodity markets as investment banks from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs state that commodities may have begun a new supercycle. Oil prices are likely to be the key focus as prices have surged nearly 80% from November lows.  Key economic data points will also be widely w...